Brisbane derbySuncorp Stadium
BRI
Broncos
DOLTIP
Dolphins
2026: Broncos 26–12 Dolphins (Round 4) · Dolphins 40–32 Broncos (Round 23)
HARRISON'S DERBY MULTI · NRL
NRL tips with my price on both sides of any matchup, and how the ratings went in 2026
- Dolphins v Broncosv Broncos · Suncorp Stadium$1.27
- Broncos v Cowboysv Cowboys · Suncorp Stadium$1.85
- Roosters v Rabbitohsv Rabbitohs · Allianz Stadium$1.54
- Panthers v Eelsv Eels · CommBank Stadium$1.40
4-leg multi at my prices
$5.07
$20 returns
$101.31
My prices come from my ratings, not a bookie; a bookie's price on the same side is usually shorter. 18+ · Gamble responsibly · We may earn a commission.
Every derby, both sides
Tap a price to swap it into your multi. TIP marks my side. Prices are mine, worked out from my ratings as at 27 September 2026; how I set them.
Queensland derbySuncorp Stadium
BRITIP
Broncos
NQL
Cowboys
2026: Broncos 31–35 Cowboys (Round 6) · Cowboys 18–10 Broncos (Round 21)
1908 foundation clubsAllianz Stadium
SYDTIP
Roosters
SOU
Rabbitohs
2026: Roosters 26–18 Rabbitohs (Round 2) · Rabbitohs 50–20 Roosters (Round 27)
Western Sydney derbyCommBank Stadium
PAR
Eels
PENTIP
Panthers
2026: Panthers 48–20 Eels (Round 4) · Eels 18–24 Panthers (Round 21)
Canterbury v ParramattaAccor Stadium
BULTIP
Bulldogs
PAR
Eels
2026: Eels 38–20 Bulldogs (Round 7) · Bulldogs 14–12 Eels (Round 14)
Southern Sydney derbyOcean Protect Stadium
CROTIP
Sharks
STG
Dragons
2026: Sharks 34–12 Dragons (Round 14) · Dragons 24–16 Sharks (Round 23)
YOUR MULTI · 4 LEGS$5.07$20 returns $101.31
Compare bookiesMy ratings on 2026 · 128 of 212 · 60%
Each call used only results from before that match. BACK-TEST, NOT PICKS POSTED AT THE TIME
Round 274/8
- miss
- right
- right
- right
- miss
- miss
- miss
- right
Biggest miss: Broncos won at my $6.29
Finals Week 12/4
- miss
- miss
- right
- right
Biggest miss: Knights won at my $3.70
Finals Week 21/2
- right
- miss
Biggest miss: Knights won at my $4.67
Finals Week 30/2
- miss
- miss
Biggest miss: Knights won at my $3.61
These are my NRL tips, written as prices. Every club has a rating from the 212 NRL games completed in 2026, and the calculator below turns any two ratings into my price for both sides. The cards above cover six derbies; the tables below show how the same ratings went, round by round, including the games they got wrong. Use my number as a yardstick when you look at a bookie's price.
All 17 clubs, rated after 212 games
A rating is in points against an average side. Two clubs' ratings, plus the home edge, give the margin I expect. The ladder column shows where each club actually finished the 2026 regular season, for comparison.
| # | Club | Rating | Ladder | W–L | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 9.1 | 2 | 18–6 | 310 |
| 2 | Sydney Roosters | 7.4 | 4 | 16–8 | 118 |
| 3 | Dolphins | 7.1 | 3 | 17–7 | 156 |
| 4 | Penrith Panthers | 7.1 | 1 | 18–6 | 336 |
| 5 | Newcastle Knights | 5.8 | 7 | 14–10 | 42 |
| 6 | South Sydney Rabbitohs | 3.9 | 6 | 14–10 | 113 |
| 7 | Melbourne Storm | 2.6 | 10 | 11–13 | 18 |
| 8 | Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles | 2.5 | 9 | 11–13 | 99 |
| 9 | Canberra Raiders | 1 | 11 | 11–13 | -45 |
| 10 | Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks | -1.2 | 5 | 14–10 | 149 |
| 11 | Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs | -1.7 | 12 | 11–13 | -60 |
| 12 | Parramatta Eels | -3.1 | 13 | 9–15 | -181 |
| 13 | North Queensland Cowboys | -4.4 | 8 | 13–11 | -84 |
| 14 | Brisbane Broncos | -6.9 | 14 | 8–16 | -206 |
| 15 | Gold Coast Titans | -7.6 | 16 | 6–18 | -186 |
| 16 | St. George Illawarra Dragons | -9.9 | 17 | 5–19 | -325 |
| 17 | Wests Tigers | -11.9 | 15 | 8–16 | -254 |
The Warriors top the ratings although they finished second on the ladder. Ratings weigh the size of each result, not just the win, and recent games count for more because every result moves a rating from where it already stands. Penrith are fourth: they won the minor premiership, then lost the preliminary final to the Knights 22–14.
Price any NRL matchup
Pick a home side, an away side and a ground. The home edge is 2 points, plus 2 more when the visitor travels from another city; on a neutral ground there is no edge at all.
Read the answer the way you would read a bookie's market. If I have a side at $1.80 and a bookie offers $2.00, the bookie is paying more than my ratings think the side is worth. If the bookie offers $1.65, it is paying less.
How the ratings went in 2026
Across the season the ratings picked the winner in 128 of 212 games, or 60%. Every call used only results from before that game, so this is a fair test of the method, but it isn't a record of picks I posted at the time.
- Round 1 to Round 9: 36 of 72 (50%). Every club starts on zero, so the first weeks are close to guesswork.
- Round 10 to Finals Week 3: 92 of 140 (66%), once the ratings had enough games behind them.
- Favourites at $1.50 or shorter: 72 of 107 (67%).
- Home sides: 101 of 183 (55%) where one side played at its own ground.
The early-season number is the honest weak spot. For 2027 I'll carry part of each club's 2026 rating into Round 1 instead of starting everyone level, and the Perth Bears will start below average until they have games behind them.
The upsets that cost the ratings most
These are the five winners I rated least likely in 2026. A price of $15 means I gave that side about a 7% chance.
| Round | Winner | Beat | Score | My price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Round 25 | Wests Tigers | Roosters | 25–24 | $15.33 |
| Round 20 | Broncos | Panthers | 14–12 | $14.57 |
| Round 23 | Dragons | Sharks | 24–16 | $9.34 |
| Round 27 | Broncos | Bulldogs | 34–20 | $6.29 |
| Round 13 | Dragons | Broncos | 30–26 | $6.06 |
Two of the five are one-score games, and that is the nature of rugby league: a field goal or a late try can undo a sound read. A long-priced winner doesn't prove the price wrong; it happens about as often as the price says, which is rarely.
Expert footy tips, and what they rarely show you
Newspaper and TV tipsters pick a winner in every game. What they rarely show is the price. Picking the Storm at $1.20 and picking the Titans at $3.50 count the same in a tipping comp, but they are very different bets.
That is why every tip on this site comes with my price and the date of the ratings behind it. You can see where I rate a side and check it against a bookie's odds, instead of taking a winner on trust.
Tipping comp or betting: two different jobs
In an office tipping comp you pick every game and the favourite is usually right. Take the side my ratings favour in every match and you would have been right about 60% of the time in 2026.
Betting is a different job. You only want a side when the bookie pays more than its real chance is worth, and the bookie's margin means that is less common than it looks. Most weeks, the favourite at a short price is fairly priced or worse. The useful question is not "who wins?" but "is this price bigger than my price?"
Once you have my number for a side, the next step is a bookie's price on the same game. I compare six licensed bookies on PayID, minimum deposit and withdrawal times, as each one states them.
Compare the bookies for footy18+ · Gamble responsibly · Gambling Help Online 1800 858 858 · We may earn a commission.
What changes for 2027
The Perth Bears join the NRL in 2027 as the 18th club. The 2027 draw and Round 1 date had not been announced as at 29 September 2026; last year's draw came out on 14 November. State of Origin Game II is set for Wednesday 16 June 2027 at Eden Park in Auckland, with Games I and III still to be announced.
My early calls on the premiership, the top eight and the wooden spoon are on NRL predictions. The Origin series has its own page on State of Origin.
Questions punters ask
Where are your NRL tips for this weekend?
The calculator on this page prices any NRL matchup from my ratings: pick the home side, the away side and the ground. The 2026 season ends with the Grand Final on Sunday 4 October, and the 2027 draw hasn't been released yet.
How often do NRL favourites win?
In my 2026 back-test, sides I priced at $1.50 or shorter won 72 of 107 games, or 67%. A $1.50 price implies 67%, so those favourites won about as often as the price said.
Do home teams win more often in the NRL?
Yes, a little. Of 183 games in 2026 where one side played at its own ground, the home side won 101, or 55%. That's why my ratings give a home side 2 points, and 2 more when the visitor travels from another city.
What does TIP mean on the cards?
TIP marks the side my ratings make more likely to win. It is the same side as the shorter of my two prices.
How do I judge an NRL tipster?
Ask for the price and the time behind each tip, and a record that includes the losses. A tipster who only shows winners, or never says what price they took, can't be checked.
Tips, ratings and prices for NRL and AFL
Published · Last checked
What I did for this page: rated all 212 completed NRL games of 2026 from the nrl.com draw data, back-tested every call and priced six derbies (checked 29 September 2026). Not done yet: the Grand Final on 4 October, and no 2027 draw exists to price.
How I tip · Sources for this page · How we make money. A bookie's commission doesn't change my ratings, my prices or the order of bookies.
Read next
- AFL tips: all 18 clubs rated and priced
- NRL multi tips: building a multi leg by leg
- NRL predictions for 2027, with the Perth Bears
- State of Origin 2027: dates, venues and how I price it
- How I tip: the full back-test, round by round
Sources
- NRL 2026 draw and results, rounds 1 to 31: nrl.com/draw/?competition=111&season=2026, checked 28 September 2026.
- NRL 2026 ladder after round 27: nrl.com/ladder/?competition=111&season=2026, checked 28 September 2026.