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The Footy SlipCompare bookies
Two Parramatta defenders drive a Newcastle ball-carrier into the turf in front of a packed grandstand, 2021 NRL finals
Photo: RegionalQueenslander, CC BY-SA 4.0 (cropped), via Wikimedia Commons

HARRISON'S DERBY MULTI · NRL

NRL and AFL tips with my price on both sides, and the maths behind every number

  1. Dolphins v Broncosv Broncos · Suncorp Stadium$1.27
  2. Broncos v Cowboysv Cowboys · Suncorp Stadium$1.85
  3. Roosters v Rabbitohsv Rabbitohs · Allianz Stadium$1.54
  4. Panthers v Eelsv Eels · CommBank Stadium$1.40

4-leg multi at my prices

$5.07

$20 returns

$101.31

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My prices come from my ratings, not a bookie; a bookie's price on the same side is usually shorter. 18+ · Gamble responsibly · We may earn a commission.

Every derby, both sides

Six derbies a code, each with my price on both sides. The line under a card turns those prices back into chances, which is the number to hold against a bookie's odds. Tap a side to build your own multi; TIP marks the side I rate higher, and How I tip shows the method.

Brisbane derbySuncorp Stadium

BRI

Broncos

DOLTIP

Dolphins

My chance: Broncos 21% · Dolphins 79%

Queensland derbySuncorp Stadium

BRITIP

Broncos

NQL

Cowboys

My chance: Broncos 54% · Cowboys 46%

1908 foundation clubsAllianz Stadium

SYDTIP

Roosters

SOU

Rabbitohs

My chance: Roosters 65% · Rabbitohs 35%

Western Sydney derbyCommBank Stadium

PAR

Eels

PENTIP

Panthers

My chance: Eels 29% · Panthers 71%

Canterbury v ParramattaAccor Stadium

BULTIP

Bulldogs

PAR

Eels

My chance: Bulldogs 59% · Eels 41%

Southern Sydney derbyOcean Protect Stadium

CROTIP

Sharks

STG

Dragons

My chance: Sharks 80% · Dragons 20%

YOUR MULTI · 4 LEGS$5.07$20 returns $101.31
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My ratings on 2026 · NRL 128 of 212 · AFL 146 of 215

Each call used only results from before that match. BACK-TEST, NOT PICKS POSTED AT THE TIME

See every round of the back-test
NRL · Finals Week 21/2
  • right
  • miss

Biggest miss: Knights won at my $4.67

NRL · Finals Week 30/2
  • miss
  • miss

Biggest miss: Knights won at my $3.61

AFL · Preliminary Finals0/2
  • miss
  • miss

Biggest miss: Dockers won at my $3.33

AFL · Grand Final1/1
  • right

No misses

This is where I put my NRL and AFL tips as prices, not hunches. Every club has a rating built from the 2026 results the leagues publish, and every price above comes out of those ratings. Tap a side to build a multi and the slip shows what $20 returns at my numbers. Then check a licensed Australian bookie's price on the same side before you put a dollar on it.

How a rating turns into a price

Every club started 2026 on zero. After each game, the winner's rating moves up by a slice of the gap between the margin I expected and the margin it actually got, and the loser's moves down by the same amount. Beat my number by 20 and you gain a lot; win by a point when I had you by 12 and you lose ground.

Take the Queensland derby at Suncorp Stadium. The Broncos rate -6.9 and the Cowboys -4.4, but the Cowboys travel from Townsville, so the Broncos get 4 points for home ground. That leaves the Broncos 1.5 points better, a 54% chance on my numbers. One divided by that chance is the price: $1.85 for the Broncos, $2.18 for the Cowboys.

The full method, including why the AFL home edge is bigger when a side crosses a state line, sits on How I tip.

Where the NRL stands before the Grand Final

The Warriors finish the season top of my NRL ratings, just ahead of the Roosters. Penrith took the minor premiership on points differential, then lost the preliminary final to the Knights 22–14. The Grand Final is Roosters v Knights at Accor Stadium on Sunday 4 October, 7:30 pm AEDT; these ratings run to 27 September and don't include it.

  1. Warriors9.1
  2. Sydney Roosters7.4
  3. Dolphins7.1
  4. Penrith Panthers7.1
  5. Newcastle Knights5.8
  6. South Sydney Rabbitohs3.9
  7. Melbourne Storm2.6
  8. Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles2.5

A rating is in points: the Warriors at 9.1 against a side on 0 would be about 9 points better on a neutral ground. All 17 clubs, and a calculator for any matchup, are on NRL tips.

AFL after Brisbane's third flag in a row

Brisbane beat Fremantle 14.12 (96) to 12.17 (89) at the MCG on 26 September, their third premiership after 2024 and 2025. They finish top of my AFL ratings, with Sydney close enough that a home game at the SCG would flip the favourite.

  1. Brisbane Lions22.2
  2. Sydney Swans21.8
  3. Geelong Cats19.4
  4. Fremantle18.5
  5. Hawthorn16.5
  6. Adelaide Crows9.2
  7. Carlton9.1
  8. Melbourne7.5

AFL ratings spread wider than NRL ones because scores are bigger: a 20-point gap is a solid favourite, not a thrashing. The whole table and the matchup calculator are on AFL tips.

Building a multi on this page

The slip multiplies my prices. My four NRL legs are Dolphins $1.27, Broncos $1.85, Roosters $1.54, Panthers $1.40, which makes $5.07. Swap any side and the number moves straight away, in the slip and in the bar under the cards.

A bookie builds its margin into every leg, and in a multi the margins multiply. If a bookie sits 5% under my price on each of four legs, the multi pays about 19% less than mine. That is the main reason I keep most of my multis to two or three legs. The leg-by-leg working is on NRL multi tips, and how betting odds work covers the maths of decimal prices.

When the 2027 season starts

The AFL has set Round 1 from Wednesday 17 or Thursday 18 March to Sunday 21 March 2027, with all 18 clubs playing, and the Grand Final on Saturday 2 October 2027. The fixture itself is due later this year; last year it came out on 13 November.

The NRL hasn't announced its 2027 draw or Round 1 date as at 29 September 2026. The Perth Bears join as the 18th club, and last year's draw came out on 14 November. Early calls on both competitions are on NRL predictions and AFL predictions 2027.

Where to bet, and what you won't find here

The six bookies I compare all say in their own footer or terms that they are licensed in the Northern Territory. My bookie comparison lists PayID, minimum deposit and withdrawal times as each one states them, checked on 29 September 2026. You won't find promotions on this site: I compare what a bookie does with your money, not what it offers to sign you up.

If betting stops being fun, BetStop blocks you from every licensed Australian online and phone bookie in about five minutes, and Gambling Help Online answers on 1800 858 858, day and night.

Questions punters ask

How do multi bets work?
A multi joins two or more legs into one bet. Every leg has to win, and the prices multiply: $1.50 and $2.00 make a $3.00 multi. If one leg loses, the whole multi loses.
How do multi odds work out?
Multiply the decimal price of each leg. Four legs at $1.27, $1.85, $1.54 and $1.40 come to about $5.07, so $20 returns about $101. The bookie's margin multiplies too, which is why a long multi pays less than the real chance of every leg landing.
Who will win the NRL premiership?
The 2026 Grand Final is Roosters v Knights at Accor Stadium on Sunday 4 October. My ratings, as at 27 September, have the Roosters as the stronger side, but the ratings don't include that game yet. For 2027, see my NRL predictions page.
Who won the AFL premiership in 2026?
Brisbane beat Fremantle 14.12 (96) to 12.17 (89) at the MCG on Saturday 26 September 2026. It is Brisbane's third premiership in a row, after 2024 and 2025.
Are your prices a bookie's odds?
No. They are my prices, worked out from my ratings. A bookie sets its own odds and builds in a margin, so its price on the same side is usually shorter than mine. Compare the two before you bet.
How often are your tips right?
Tips are one punter's opinion, and they miss. My ratings picked the winner in about 60% of NRL games and 68% of AFL games in the 2026 back-test, which means they were wrong in roughly one game in three.
Illustration: Harrison Yeo, the pen name behind The Footy Slip

Tips, ratings and prices for NRL and AFL

Published · Last checked

What I did for this page: rated all 212 NRL and 218 AFL games of 2026 from the results nrl.com and afl.com.au publish, then priced twelve derbies from those ratings (checked 29 September 2026). Not done yet: the NRL Grand Final on 4 October is not in the ratings, and I haven't published picks for a live round.

How I tip · Sources for this page · How we make money. A bookie's commission doesn't change my ratings, my prices or the order of bookies.

Read next

Sources

  1. NRL 2026 draw and results: nrl.com/draw/, checked 28 September 2026.
  2. AFL 2026 fixture and results: afl.com.au/fixture, checked 28 September 2026.
  3. AFL 2027 season dates: afl.com.au/news/1600446, checked 28 September 2026.

MULTI · 4 LEGS · 18+

$5.07$20 → $101.31

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