NRL · EARLY CALLS FOR 2027
NRL predictions for 2027: premiership, top-eight and wooden-spoon chances for all 18 clubs
The 2027 season is the first with 18 clubs, and the draw isn't out yet. I played the season 20,000 times from my end-of-2026 ratings to put a chance and a price on every club: who wins the premiership, who makes the eight, and who takes the spoon. My favourite, the Warriors, comes out near $6. Below are the numbers, the assumptions behind them, and what would move them before Round 1.
All 18 clubs, 20,000 seasons
Each row is how often a club did something across the simulated seasons. My price is 1 divided by the premiership chance; where the chance is tiny, the table just says $200+.
A futures bet ties up your money for a whole season, so where it sits matters. I compare six licensed bookies on deposits and withdrawals, in their own words.
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| Club | Start | Premiers | My price | Top 8 | Spoon | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 6.1 | 18% | $5.70 | 83% | <1% | 16.4 |
| Sydney Roosters | 4.9 | 13% | $7.62 | 77% | <1% | 15.7 |
| Dolphins | 4.7 | 13% | $7.91 | 76% | <1% | 15.5 |
| Penrith Panthers | 4.7 | 13% | $7.91 | 76% | <1% | 15.5 |
| Newcastle Knights | 3.9 | 11% | $9.43 | 71% | <1% | 15 |
| South Sydney Rabbitohs | 2.6 | 7% | $13.39 | 63% | 1% | 14.3 |
| Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles | 1.7 | 6% | $17.12 | 56% | 1% | 13.7 |
| Melbourne Storm | 1.7 | 6% | $17.38 | 56% | 1% | 13.7 |
| Canberra Raiders | 0.7 | 5% | $22.15 | 50% | 1% | 13.1 |
| Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks | -0.8 | 3% | $37.88 | 38% | 3% | 12.2 |
| Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs | -1.1 | 2% | $42.11 | 38% | 3% | 12 |
| Parramatta Eels | -2.1 | 2% | $57.97 | 30% | 5% | 11.4 |
| North Queensland Cowboys | -2.9 | 1% | $80.65 | 25% | 6% | 10.9 |
| Brisbane Broncos | -4.6 | 1% | $181.82 | 16% | 10% | 9.8 |
| Perth Bears | -5 | <1% | $200+ | 15% | 12% | 9.6 |
| Gold Coast Titans | -5.1 | <1% | $200+ | 14% | 12% | 9.6 |
| St. George Illawarra Dragons | -6.6 | <1% | $200+ | 10% | 18% | 8.7 |
| Wests Tigers | -7.9 | <1% | $200+ | 6% | 26% | 7.9 |
"Start" is the rating each club carries into 2027: two-thirds of its end-of-2026 rating, because some of last year's form fades over a summer. "Wins" is the average number of wins from 24 games.
What I assumed
- No draw yet. Every club plays every other club once, plus random repeat games up to 24, with home and away decided at random. The real draw will give some clubs a kinder run.
- The Perth Bears start 5 points below average. That is a guess, not a rating: they have no games behind them.
- Uncertainty over summer. In each simulated season a club's true strength can land about 4 points either side of its starting rating, to allow for signings, injuries and coaching changes I can't see.
- A top-eight finals series in the current format, with the higher seed at home and the Grand Final on neutral terms.
The contenders
The Warriors start 2027 as my most likely premier at about 18%, which is $5.70 as a price. Behind them, the Roosters, Dolphins and Panthers are so close that the draw could reorder them. None of the top five is better than about one chance in five.
That spread is normal for the NRL before a ball is kicked. A premiership needs a club to stay near the top for six months and then win three or four finals in a row, and rugby league results swing more than the AFL's.
The spoon and the new club
The Wests Tigers are my most likely wooden spooners at about 26%, followed by the Dragons and the Titans. The Bears, on my below-average guess, take the spoon in about 12% of seasons, similar to clubs that finished near the bottom in 2026.
The last new club, the Dolphins, finished third in my 2026 ratings in only their fourth season, so a first-year club can surprise. Once the Bears have played a few rounds, their rating will tell us far more than any guess.
What would change these numbers
Three things, in order of size. The 2026 Grand Final on 4 October is not in the ratings yet and will move the Roosters and the Knights. The 2027 draw will decide who plays whom twice, and where. And off-season signings, which only show up in the ratings once the games start.
No bookie had a 2027 NRL premiership market up when I checked on 29 September 2026, so there is no market price to compare with yet. For the AFL there is, and the gaps are interesting: see AFL predictions 2027.
Questions punters ask
Who will win the NRL premiership in 2027?
How will the Perth Bears go in 2027?
When is the NRL 2027 draw released?
What is an NRL ladder predictor?
Tips, ratings and prices for NRL and AFL
Published · Last checked
What I did for this page: simulated the 2027 NRL season 20,000 times from my ratings after 212 games of 2026 (checked 29 September 2026). Not done yet: the Grand Final on 4 October, the 2027 draw and off-season signings are not in these numbers, and no bookie had a 2027 premiership market up on 29 September.
How I tip · Sources for this page · How we make money. A bookie's commission doesn't change my ratings, my prices or the order of bookies.
Read next
- NRL tips: every club's rating and the matchup calculator
- AFL predictions 2027, with bookie prices alongside
- State of Origin 2027
- How I tip: the rating behind these numbers
Sources
- NRL 2026 draw and results (ratings input): nrl.com/draw/?competition=111&season=2026, checked 28 September 2026.
- NRL 2026 ladder after round 27: nrl.com/ladder/?competition=111&season=2026, checked 28 September 2026.