Collingwood v CarltonMCG
COLL
Magpies
CARLTIP
Blues
As a single, $20 on the Blues returns $35.40.
HARRISON'S DERBY MULTI · AFL
AFL multi tips: why short favourites stack up differently, and where the margin bites
- Blues v Magpiesv Magpies · lands 56 times in 100$1.77
- Crows v Powerv Power · lands 79 times in 100$1.26
- Dockers v Eaglesv Eagles · lands 88 times in 100$1.13
- Lions v Sunsv Suns · lands 81 times in 100$1.23
4-leg multi at my prices
$3.10
$20 returns
$62.00
My prices come from my ratings, not a bookie; a bookie's price on the same side is usually shorter. 18+ · Gamble responsibly · We may earn a commission.
Build your multi, both sides
Every leg you add multiplies the price, and the bookie's margin with it. Tap a side to add it or swap a leg; TIP marks mine. The prices come from my ratings, and How I tip shows the method.
ShowdownAdelaide Oval
ADELTIP
Crows
PORT
Power
As a single, $20 on the Crows returns $25.20.
Western DerbyOptus Stadium
WCE
Eagles
FRETIP
Dockers
As a single, $20 on the Dockers returns $22.60.
QClashGabba
BLTIP
Lions
GCFC
Suns
As a single, $20 on the Lions returns $24.60.
Sydney DerbySCG
SYDTIP
Swans
GWS
Giants
As a single, $20 on the Swans returns $25.80.
Collingwood v EssendonMCG
COLLTIP
Magpies
ESS
Bombers
As a single, $20 on the Magpies returns $23.20.
YOUR MULTI · 4 LEGS$3.10$20 returns $62.00
Compare bookiesAn AFL multi behaves differently from a rugby league one, because the AFL favourite wins more often. My four-leg derby multi above pays $3.10 at my prices, and $20 returns $62.00. Here is what that means as a chance, why short legs are where the margin hurts most, and how I build one.
My four legs, as prices and as chances
| Leg | Derby | My price | My chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blues v Magpies | Collingwood v Carlton | $1.77 | 56% |
| Crows v Power | Showdown | $1.26 | 79% |
| Dockers v Eagles | Western Derby | $1.13 | 88% |
| Lions v Suns | QClash | $1.23 | 81% |
Multiply the prices and you get $3.10. Multiply the chances and you get about 32%, roughly one time in 3. Three of the four legs are short favourites, which is typical of an AFL multi.
Short favourites really do win more often
Across my 2026 back-test, 70 of the 84 AFL favourites I had at $1.50 or less got the win, a strike rate of 83%; NRL favourites in the same price band managed 67%. Footy scores run to 80 or 100 points, so a single fortunate bounce rarely decides the result and the stronger club tends to win.
That is why AFL multis of favourites are so popular, and also why they are where a bookie's margin does the most quiet damage.
Where the margin bites
Take a leg I price at $1.13. If a bookie offers $1.08, it is paying 5 cents less on the dollar of risk, but it has taken away about 38% of the profit on that leg: 8 cents instead of 13. On short legs, a small gap in the price is a big share of what you can win.
Stack four of those legs and the multi pays noticeably less than the chance of it landing deserves. The price still looks attractive because it is bigger than any single leg; the question is whether it is as big as it should be.
The difference between a fair AFL multi and a poor one is a few cents a leg, so it pays to know where your money sits. I compare six licensed bookies on PayID, deposits and withdrawals, in their own words.
Compare the bookies for footy18+ · Gamble responsibly · Gambling Help Online 1800 858 858 · We may earn a commission.
Head to head or line
When a favourite is very short, some punters switch the leg to the line: the favourite has to win by more than a set margin, and the price moves back towards $1.90. It turns a leg that adds almost nothing to the multi into one that adds real value, and real risk. My ratings give an expected margin for every game, which is the number to compare with a bookie's line; the calculator on AFL tips shows it for any matchup.
How I build an AFL multi
- Two or three legs, rarely four.
- A leg goes in only if the bookie pays at least my price for it.
- No two legs from the same game in a normal multi; that is a same game multi, priced differently.
- Interstate games first: the travel edge is the biggest number in my AFL model, and the one most worth checking against a bookie's price.
Tap any price on the derby cards and the slip at the top rebuilds the multi at my numbers. The NRL version, with its longer prices and bigger upsets, is on NRL multi tips.
Questions punters ask
How do AFL multis work?
You pick two or more legs, usually one result per game, and every leg must win. The prices multiply, so $1.25 and $1.60 make a $2.00 multi.
Are AFL multis with short favourites a good idea?
They land more often than NRL ones, because AFL favourites win more often. In my 2026 back-test, sides at $1.50 or shorter won 83% of the time. The catch is the margin: at short prices a small shortfall per leg is a big share of what you can win.
What is a line bet in the AFL?
A bet on the margin rather than the winner. The favourite starts with a points deficit, say minus 15.5, and has to win by more than that for the bet to pay.
How many legs should an AFL multi have?
Every leg multiplies the bookie's margin along with the price. I keep mine short, usually two or three legs, and only add a leg when the price is at least mine.
Tips, ratings and prices for NRL and AFL
Published · Last checked
What I did for this page: priced six AFL derbies from my ratings as at 26 September 2026 and worked out the multi figures and the 2026 favourite record from them (checked 29 September 2026). Not done yet: bookie prices on these derbies, which aren't scheduled until the 2027 fixture.
How I tip · Sources for this page · How we make money. A bookie's commission doesn't change my ratings, my prices or the order of bookies.
Read next
- AFL tips: my price for any matchup
- NRL multi tips: what each leg adds and takes away
- Same game multi explained
- How betting odds work
Sources
- AFL 2026 matches and results (ratings input): afl.com.au/fixture, checked 28 September 2026.